JPT

 

Vol. 58 No. 9

September 2006

Reservoir Performance and Monitoring

Quantifying Uncertainty in Production Forecast for Fields With Significant History

Understanding the effects of subsurface uncertainties on production responses is an integral part of the decision-making process. A more accurate quantification of the uncertainty of production forecasts contributes to better business decisions. When a field has produced for several years, models must be conditioned to available production data to obtain meaningful predictions. Data integration and uncertainty assessment of future performance of the reservoir are indivisible processes that cannot be addressed generally by simple techniques. A method is presented to solve complex inverse problems that involve highly nonlinear responses.

Synopsis of IPTC 10987

This article, written by Technology Editor Dennis Denney, contains highlights of paper IPTC 10987, "Quantifying Uncertainty in Production Forecast for Fields With Significant History: A West African Case Study," by A. Castellini, SPE, I. Gullapalli, SPE, V. Hoang, and P. Condon, SPE, Chevron, prepared for the 2005 International Petroleum Technology Conference, Doha, Qatar, 21-23 November.

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